The Canadian GP guarantees to be an unpredictable occasion. It’s often filled with uncertainties resulting from altering climate situations all through the weekend. This yr, nonetheless, regardless of the forecasts remaining pretty steady to this point and anticipated to remain that method tomorrow, the very delicate tire nomination on a low-grip and usually soiled monitor will increase the danger of graining.
A phenomenon that affected all the highest groups throughout Friday’s race tempo simulations. Essentially the most affected was Ferrari, which might solely run with Lewis Hamilton resulting from Charles Leclerc’s absence following his FP1 crash. Earlier than sharing our ideas, let’s assessment the recommendation Pirelli gave to the groups after qualifying.
Pirelli’s recommendation – Circuit Gilles Villeneuve – 70 laps
The primary difficulty is certainly graining and the usage of C4 and C5 compounds in race mode. Mario Isola, Pirelli motorsport director, was very clear and concise: “Extending the 2025 compound vary is creating quite a lot of approaches amongst groups and drivers in tire utilization all through the weekend, which is able to replicate on the race. From a technique perspective, we predict a two-stop stays probably the most believable choice, favoring Medium and Laborious tires. The one-stop technique is theoretically legitimate however unlikely to repay, contemplating overtaking is feasible right here and the time misplaced within the pit lane for tire adjustments is sort of restricted (round 18 seconds),” in line with the assertion from the Pirelli crew.
Graining and brief stops might open the door to a three-stop situation
It’s no secret that the C6 isn’t probably the most appropriate tire for the race. The brand new Pirelli compound, on the sort of circuit—as seen already at Imola—doesn’t make a distinction. In qualifying it’s generally even ignored and can possible be much more so in the course of the race.
The GP opens as much as varied methods, largely relying on the remaining tire units accessible to the drivers. We agree with Pirelli that the quickest technique, not less than on paper, shall be a two-stop plan like Medium-Medium-Laborious or Laborious-Laborious-Medium. It have to be famous that the C5, the yellow compound this yr, remains to be very delicate and, as seen already on Friday (race tempo information), suffers loads from graining.
If drivers can handle stints of about 20 laps on the C5, then the M-M-H technique turns into doable; in any other case, if degradation is excessive and an early pit cease is important, they’ll change to M-H-H or, in the event that they don’t have two units of C4, change plans in direction of a three-stop technique possible involving the Smooth tire.
Utilizing the Smooth C6, in our opinion, shall be extra a matter of necessity (resulting from shortages of different compounds) somewhat than efficiency. We consider that these beginning on Smooth have both already dedicated to a three-stop or need to attempt to acquire a bonus with an early undercut, hoping to choose up positions whereas operating on Laborious tires in clear air. These beginning on Smooth will possible go S-H-H or three stops.
If pressured to make use of Smooth, we suggest utilizing it within the closing stint. The extra rubbered-in monitor will assist handle graining higher. Given qualifying efficiency, nonetheless, we don’t consider the C6 can provide a constant efficiency benefit over the C5. Once more, its use shall be extra out of necessity.
For these with a scarcity of Medium and Laborious tires—just one set of every accessible—a two-stop technique together with all three compounds is feasible. Even in that case, the very best method could be to make use of Smooth within the final section of the race.
If graining is excessive, we might see two eventualities the place each undercuts and overcuts could possibly be very efficient. Pitting early permits gaining monitor place over drivers on worn tires initially, however these pitting late would possibly acquire a bonus over those that modified tires too early.
Abstract
The 2-stop technique is on paper the most suitable choice, however for the reason that pit cease time is pretty brief (18 seconds), three stops could possibly be a really attention-grabbing various, particularly if graining is extreme. In Canada, potential security vehicles should even be thought-about, as a Security Automotive deployment is at all times possible. The groups will must be adept at capitalizing on each alternative, particularly utilizing a free pit cease to realize a bonus.
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